NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:NFL Week 2 winners, losers: Bears have a protection problem with Caleb Williams

If there’s one theme that has characterized Week 2 in the NFL,NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center it’s the rash of upsets of so-called legitimate Super Bowl contenders.

The San Francisco 49ers (vs. the Minnesota Vikings), Dallas Cowboys (New Orleans Saints), Baltimore Ravens (Las Vegas Raiders) and Detroit Lions (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) each came into their respective games favored by at least 5.5 points. Each lost.

These are all very good teams that can respond, but it’s undeniable some concerning patterns may be developing. For instance, over the last four seasons, Baltimore now has 10 losses in which it held a lead of at least seven points, most in the NFL.

Here are the winners and losers from Sunday of Week 2.

WINNERS

Behind running game, Malik Willis, Packers get reassurance

Green Bay, going back to the initial diagnosis of quarterback Jordan Love’s knee injury, has been the beneficiary of some positive news. First, that Love’s injury wasn’t as serious as it appeared. Second, that the offense will apparently be just fine during his time away.

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Behind a persistent rushing attack — the Packers ran the ball 53 times, nine times more than the next closest team (Chargers) did in Week 2 — and a moderate but efficient passing workload from backup quarterback Malik Willis, Green Bay sustained drives and doubled up the Indianapolis Colts on time of possession in a 16-10 win. Although their two upcoming opponents, the Titans and Vikings, each have oppressive defenses, the Packers should feel reassured that they don’t need to rush Love back at the risk of falling behind in the NFC North, particularly because only the Vikings are 2-0.

Jonathan Gannon’s Cardinals keep winning big games

This goes down as only the fifth victory of Arizona Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon’s 18 games with the team. Despite the lower number, however, these are the teams Arizona has toppled during his tenure: the Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles (all in 2023), and, now, the Los Angeles Rams after Sunday's 41-10 rout.

This, though, was unquestionably the team's most complete game under Gannon. Kyler Murray and the passing attack flourished early, and Murray built his rapport with star rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. The Cardinals gained 231 yards on the ground on 40 carries . The defense limited the Rams to just two third-down conversions. Arizona (489) nearly doubled up L.A. (245) in total offense. The Rams were without receiver Puka Nacua, but this was total domination.

Sam Darnold revival season

Sam Darnold, unchallenged as the Vikings' starting quarterback due to rookie J.J. McCarthy's season-ending knee injury, is making the most of his opportunity. One week after dominating the lowly New York Giants, Darnold carved up what may end up being the best defense in the NFL.

What makes Darnold’s performance in the 23-17 triumph all the more remarkable is that receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson were both out, and star receiver Justin Jefferson (bruised quadriceps) left in the fourth quarter. Darnold has completed 72% of his throws this season for 476 yards with four touchdowns against two interceptions. As always with Darnold, as long as he protects the ball and plays within the offense, he can be serviceable. Even if it’s not in Minnesota — Darnold signed on a one-year deal — he’s making his case to latch on somewhere else in the offseason.

Antonio Pierce

The Raiders had lost seven of their previous eight road games going into Sunday. All Vegas did was go into Baltimore to steal a game against a Ravens team thought to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

It hasn’t been without obstacles, but Raiders coach Antonio Pierce has slowly turned the culture around in Las Vegas. In Sunday's 26-23 win, the Silver and Black faced a 10-point deficit in the middle of the fourth quarter against the reigning MVP in Lamar Jackson. But, after the Raiders closed it to seven points with a field goal, their defense clamped down and forced consecutive three-and-outs against Baltimore. The defense has become the team’s identity and limited the Ravens to just three of 11 third-down conversions (27%). Baltimore has a better roster. On Sunday, the Raiders had far more heart.

LOSERS

Chicago’s O-line lets Caleb Williams down

One adjustment the Bears made from Week 1 to Week 2 was to have rookie passer Caleb Williams get the ball out quicker. Early in the 19-13 loss to the Houston Texans, it led to Williams finding a rhythm and distributing passes all over the field.

As the game wore on, however, Chicago's front couldn’t even hold its blocks long enough for quick-release throws, which was only exacerbated by the team being in obvious passing downs. To be fair, Williams had his share of mistakes, notably a pair of underthrows that resulted in interceptions. Still, asking a rookie to brush off seven sacks and 11 quarterback hits and quicken his process is a recipe for failure. Chicago’s line needs to do better.

The Lions inside the red zone

In its 20-16 loss to the Buccaneers, Detroit had seven trips inside the 20. Typically, that’s an indicator of a ball control and dominance. For the Lions, the results were a marker of ineptitude. From those seven trips, they converted only one touchdown (14.3%). Since 2000, that marked the second-worst performance in offensive red zone efficiency when a team had at least seven trips inside the 20-yard line.

Detroit was out of sorts on offense the entire game. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles and his defense obviously deserve a ton of credit, but the Lions' plays often were designed horizontally, allowing Tampa Bay’s speed on defense to swarm. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson bears a lot of responsibility for this one.

Mike Zimmer has Alvin Kamara in his nightmares

Four years ago, as the head coach of the Vikings, Mike Zimmer saw his defense allow Saints running back Alvin Kamara to score six touchdowns in a single game. Now, as the defensive coordinator of the Cowboys, Zimmer watched Kamara rip off four more against his defense in a 44-19 rout.

Kamara gained 180 yards from scrimmage on 22 touches. More importantly for the Cowboys, the blowout loss in their home opener raises massive concerns. Dallas, whose offensive identity has been tied to the rushing game, simply isn’t getting enough production from Ezekiel Elliott. Dak Prescott has been uneven, and the first-team offense failed to convert any of its three trips inside the red zone. And the defense had no answer for the Saints' speed.

Will Levis can’t stop getting out of his own way

Sometimes, it’s prudent to give young quarterbacks some leeway, allowing them to figure out when to be calculated and take chances. Titans quarterback Will Levis, now in his second season, should know better. One week after a colossally poor decision led to a pick-six that became the difference in a loss against the Bears, Levis again took points off the board against the Jets in what ended up as a 24-17 loss.

In the second quarter, with Tennessee in a third-and-goal from the 6-yard line, Levis took a shotgun snap and felt pressure before he was tripped up. As he was falling to the turf, he underhand tossed the ball to running back Tyjae Spears. It was a backwards pass and an eventual fumble recovered by the Jets. After the game, Titans coach Brian Callahan ripped Levis. It’s clear these kind of mistakes won’t be tolerated much longer, especially from a coach who wasn’t around when Levis was drafted.